The theory of the Hubbert peak

The definition of the theory of the Hubbert peak’

The Hubbert peak theory is the idea that as oil production follows a bell Curve, world crude oil production eventually will peak and then down the terminal. Although this model can be applied to many resources, it was developed as a model for the extraction of oil.

Breaking down the ‘Hubbert peak theory’

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the work of Marion king Hubbert, a geologist working for shell in the 1950s. This means that the maximum production of individual or global oil reserves will be closer to the mid-life cycle reserve — Hubbert curve, which is used by oil and gas companies to estimate future production rates. After that, the decline in production accelerated due to the exhaustion of resources and diminishing returns. Accordingly, if new reserves are not brought online faster than the recoverable reserves at the end of the world will eventually reach peak oil because there’s a limited amount of conventional light sweet crude in the earth’s crust.

The technological revolution in oil extraction

But Hubbert forecast that U.S. oil production peaked in 1970-e years, and that the world will hit peak oil in about 2000, was wrong, because the technological revolution in the oil business increased recoverable reserves and improve recovery rates from new and old wells.

Thanks to high-tech digital oil exploration seismic data 3D visualization, which allows scientists to see miles below the seabed, proven reserves worldwide is growing all the time, as the discovery of new oil fields. Offshore drilling in the 1950-ies can reach the depth of 5,000 feet. Today he is 25, 000 ft.

USA surpassed its former peak in 1972 to 10.2 million barrels a day in January 2018, thanks to innovations like hydraulic fracturing, enhanced oil recovery and horizontal drilling. It added trillions of cubic feet of gas and billions of barrels of oil, recoverable reserves of hydrocarbons in America, and it turned into a net exporter of petroleum products.

No More Peak Oil

The oil industry no longer talks about the oil shortage, thanks to companies like Schlumberger. In the foreseeable future, there are almost unlimited amounts of oil. Technically recoverable oil reserves of approximately 2.6 trillion barrels and growing, because most of the world has not yet been studied using the latest technologies.

Nor were we close to peak power. There are approximately 1.1 trillion tons of proven coal reserves worldwide will last about 150 years at current production rates. There 205.34 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves will last at least 50 years. And there may be 3,000 billion tons of methane hydrates — which is enough natural gas to fuel the world for thousands of years, according to the U.S. geological and geophysical services.

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